Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 67286.605288 71178.325957 75075.916236 79269.330452 83650.501656 88089.793990 92925.061691
2025-04-20 61259.591913 67225.665117 73374.696492 80176.617999 87480.562912 95078.594342 103570.691459
2025-04-27 57120.777971 64531.098053 72342.954601 81172.674158 90855.847995 101132.161458 112842.687298
2025-05-04 53652.538254 62119.798430 71216.878806 81685.769377 93367.896161 105969.965477 120558.766405
2025-05-11 50533.213647 59796.617130 69917.241577 81748.854603 95152.651808 109817.364248 127024.595391
2025-05-18 47993.716571 57921.036050 68931.896796 81986.728474 96976.052248 113580.770073 133296.248241
2025-05-25 45712.232182 56184.371443 67962.564156 82108.793781 98551.275401 116972.482733 139079.482134
2025-06-01 44236.982878 55281.446127 67861.225291 83147.093073 101110.062256 121438.118356 146065.514652
2025-06-08 42267.250072 53688.257745 66858.749763 83044.771260 102268.559898 124235.274933 151090.700847
2025-06-15 41207.899349 53119.341002 67009.176414 84253.416790 104928.805497 128758.301488 158125.885667
2025-06-22 39977.516333 52278.737043 66779.194978 84959.217339 106956.208410 132518.916979 164265.117065
2025-06-29 38502.356305 51072.231332 66048.894801 85008.454052 108154.593392 135270.242931 169197.290606
2025-07-06 37027.114685 49824.409675 65236.691947 84937.030292 109202.134379 137856.225534 173973.109335
2025-07-13 36236.857873 49403.189294 65415.716813 86063.201528 111699.638240 142190.929665 180877.914586
2025-07-20 35485.940817 48997.091928 65585.094873 87155.664702 114145.029583 146466.234990 187733.680052
2025-07-27 34532.096923 48291.350828 65344.703724 87707.617461 115903.066627 149898.602896 193574.159770
2025-08-03 33415.553761 47333.040564 64747.323946 87776.332012 117033.538643 152547.788058 198455.801664
2025-08-10 32444.442634 46530.011415 64316.751017 88028.735359 118373.641426 155445.419626 203647.352580
2025-08-17 31473.227317 45692.782689 63811.534665 88158.131536 119537.779050 158114.432315 208558.627784
2025-08-24 30964.184589 45453.778469 64067.555124 89257.922534 121932.771371 162326.878996 215415.418845
2025-08-31 29982.008308 44543.116394 63414.259904 89149.554347 122760.721639 164561.952147 219797.489271
2025-09-07 29608.718351 44448.086472 63826.850732 90429.586267 125378.657711 169067.278360 227063.870637
2025-09-14 29043.286315 44068.682323 63844.602442 91176.981198 127301.104509 172695.246505 233239.415395